China's Achilles' heel: cheap oil

According to McFarland, the single greatest point of leverage the United States holds over China is energy. Appearing on Fox Business's Mornings with Maria in March 2026, she argued that Trump's tough stance on Iran is about far more than nuclear nonproliferation — it is a calculated move to choke off Beijing's access to affordable fuel.

"It's about cutting off the Chinese energy supply. China has needed cheap Iranian, and Venezuelan, and Russian oil to manufacture — for their manufacturing revolution." — KT McFarland, Fox Business, March 2026

McFarland contends that China relies on discounted oil from sanctioned states — Iran, Venezuela, and Russia — to power its industrial base. With the U.S. now energy dominant through its own "drill, baby, drill" posture and tightened control over Venezuelan crude exports, Washington has positioned itself to dictate terms Beijing cannot easily ignore.

The Iran nuclear deal angle: snapping Beijing's lifeline

McFarland, who served as Trump's first Deputy National Security Advisor during his initial term, has repeatedly stressed that any U.S.-Iran nuclear deal must include strict "snap inspections" — and that the pressure falls squarely on China's shoulders to deliver Iranian compliance. As she noted on Fox News in May 2026, China purchases the overwhelming majority of Iran's oil exports and has leveraged that relationship for diplomatic influence. An Iranian deal that limits oil output directly wounds Beijing's manufacturing capacity.

This framing positions the Trump administration's Iran ultimatum as a two-front maneuver: defang a nuclear threat while simultaneously tightening an economic vise around America's primary geopolitical rival.

Greenland: the geography China can't have

In January 2026, McFarland made headlines by doubling down on the administration's push to bring Greenland under American control — not for its ice sheets, but for its strategic position in an Arctic increasingly contested by China. Appearing on Fox & Friends, she argued the island is essential to dominating Atlantic maritime trade routes and keeping Chinese infrastructure ambitions out of the Western hemisphere's backyard.

"It's essential that it's in our hands, and it's not in China's hands." — KT McFarland, Fox & Friends, January 2026

The Trump-Xi summit: what McFarland expects

With the Trump-Xi meeting now on the immediate horizon, McFarland has characterized Trump as playing "four-dimensional chess" — using multiple pressure points simultaneously to extract the best possible deal from Beijing. Topics on the table are expected to include tariffs, Iran, artificial intelligence, and Middle East stability. McFarland argues that China's dependency on Iranian oil gives Washington crucial bargaining power it lacked in previous summits.

Her analysis tracks with broader reporting suggesting the U.S. trade representative is seeking "stability" over a full reset in relations, with discussions on rare-earth supply chains and a potential joint trade framework already underway between the two sides.

Who is KT McFarland?

Kathleen Troia "KT" McFarland is one of Washington's most prominent conservative national security voices. She served as Trump's Deputy National Security Advisor from the 2016 transition through early 2017, chaired the interagency Deputies' Committee, and was the first in the administration to formally reassess U.S. policy toward North Korea and China. Before the Trump White House, she was Fox News's National Security Analyst for six years. Her career in government stretches back to the Nixon administration, where she worked as an aide to Henry Kissinger.